07. September 2011
Eight Million 100-year-olds in Germany
There will be an estimated Eight Million 100-year-olds by 2111
About eight million of the people who live in Germany today will live to be at least 100 years old. This is the finding of economics Professor Eckart Bomsdorf of the University of Cologne. For his model calculations, the demographer takes into account the current population and observations of life expectancy based on the year of birth.
From the almost 82 million people presently living in German, 5.3 million women and 2.7 million men will have reached one hundred years of age (by the year 2111). “As, apart from those who emigrate, all persons who will live to be 100 years of age by 2111 are already living in Germany, the data base for these kinds of model calculations is relatively good,” explains Bomsdorf. The often-quoted presumption that the number of 100-year-olds will decrease by 2060 at the latest due to the shrinking population is also incorrect. This decrease is based on the number of older members of the population divided by the declining numbers of the so-called annual death probability and therefore more than compensates the increase of the probability of survival. The number of 100-year-olds is increasing despite the shrinking population. “The probability of reaching 100 years of age is much higher that is commonly assumed,” says Bomsdorf.
In 2090, the number of 100-year-olds will reach its maximum in the timeframe considered with just under 142,000. The number of people over 100 years of age will also increase. For example, it can be assumed that by 2061 there will be up to twice the amount of people over the age of 100 in addition to the 100,000 100-year-olds. The probability of persons living in Germany reaching 100 years of age depends on their current age and sex. It is the middle variant according to the model calculations lowest for women born in 1932, and men born in 1937. After this it begins to increase. Accordingly, from 100,000 girls born in the year 2011, close to 27,000 will reach 100 years of age, in the case of the boys, 15,000. From 100,000 women presently aged 30, close to 16,000 will reach 100, and from the 60-year-olds, 7,600. The corresponding figures for men are a little over 8,000 and 700, respectively.
For queries contact:
Professor Dr. Eckart Bomsdorf, University of Cologne
bomsdorf@wiso.uni-koeln.de,
+49 (0)221 470 2982
